ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 15, 2026 17:20 UTC · avg book margin 5.6%
Tommy PaulvsHubert Hurkacz
Paul–Hurkacz moneyline at Unibet UK trades 10.0% soft to sharp consensus, 7 hours before serve
What happened: Final score: 1–0. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +14.1% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 17 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 11 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 7.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—7 hours before Tommy Paul faces Hubert Hurkacz on the ATP World Tour—Unibet UK's moneyline quote has settled at decimal odds of 2.34, a level running 10.0% beneath where independent sharp operators have clustered their valuations. The mispricing is available now, at analysis.
Unibet UK's quote sits 4.3 standard deviations away from the consensus cluster where competing operators have aligned—a structural breach, not ordinary market scatter.
The consensus fair line is anchored by 3 independent sharp sources, ensuring the benchmark reflects distributed professional judgment rather than any single operator's model.
This mispricing type overlaps with 2 patterns from our historical record with measured payoff; the strongest has compounded to +10.8% across its settled bet cohort.
The archive on tennis moneyline signals at mid-range odds spans 3011 settled bets. Comparable pricing dislocations have returned +6.8% cumulative ROI, establishing precedent for how such gaps have historically compressed.
Edges in this market segment do not survive to serve. Comparable signals have typically eroded toward consensus parity within roughly 9 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
bwin
3.10
+7.2%
sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
SX.bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
betJACK
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Tommy Paul vs Hubert Hurkacz
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 15, 2026 22:11 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).