ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 16, 2026 16:10 UTC · avg book margin 5.2%
Joao FonsecavsBotic Van De Zandschulp
Fonseca–Van De Zandschulp at CampoBet: moneyline priced 10.0% above sharp consensus, 7 hours from serve
What happened: Final score: 2–0. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +5.9% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 11 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 7.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—7 hours before Joao Fonseca and Botic Van De Zandschulp take the court (ATP World Tour)—CampoBet's moneyline shows a measurable gap from the sharp consensus. The book has quoted decimal odds of 3.60 on one outcome, a level running 10.0% above the fair value assembled by independent sharp operators. The mispricing is accessible at writing; it represents a tradeable market dislocation, not post-match analysis.
This quote sits 2.9 standard deviations removed from where the rest of the market has clustered—a statistical outlier well beyond ordinary price variation.
The consensus fair value draws from 3 independent sharp sources, so the benchmark reflects distributed professional judgment rather than any single operator's isolated view.
This dislocation aligns with 2 historically profitable patterns in our archive—the strongest iteration has returned +11.1% ROI across its closed bet sample.
The record across 3031 settled tennis moneyline bets at comparable odds levels shows cumulative +7.0% ROI, establishing precedent for how similar mispricings have resolved.
Dislocations of this magnitude do not linger to serve. Historical data suggests comparable edges in this market segment have typically compressed toward consensus within approximately 9 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
bwin
3.10
+7.2%
sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
SX.bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
betJACK
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Joao Fonseca vs Botic Van De Zandschulp
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 16, 2026 19:01 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).