ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 16, 2026 14:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.2%
Nuno BorgesvsFrancisco Cerundolo
Borges–Cerundolo at detection: Bodog moneyline overvalues by 6.9% versus sharp consensus, 19 hours from serve
What happened: Final score: 1–0. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-0.3% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 19 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 5 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 18.8 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
As of writing—19 hours before Nuno Borges plays Francisco Cerundolo on the ATP World Tour—the moneyline market has fractured across bookmakers. Bodog is quoting decimal odds of 2.30, a premium of 6.9% over the sharp consensus line. The pricing window remains active and open for action.
The outlier quote sits 4.9 standard deviations from the cluster where other operators have settled—a structural misalignment, not ordinary daily drift.
The consensus fair line draws from 3 independent sharp sources, anchoring the benchmark in distributed professional judgment rather than a single book's model.
This signal overlaps with 2 historically profitable patterns from our archive—the strongest has compounded to +10.8% across its settled cohort.
Tennis moneyline signals at mid-range odds have documented precedent: 3024 settled bets in this exact segment have returned +7.0% cumulative ROI.
Mispricings of this magnitude do not hold passively through to first serve. Comparable edges in this market segment have typically compressed toward parity within roughly 9 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
bwin
3.10
+7.2%
sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
SX.bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
betJACK
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Nuno Borges vs Francisco Cerundolo
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 16, 2026 20:01 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).