ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 17, 2026 18:30 UTC · avg book margin 5.2%

Jiri LeheckavsArthur Fils

Lehecka–Fils moneyline at Betano: 7.2% soft to sharp consensus, 15 hours from serve

Offered at Betano2.58Fair price2.41+7.2% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 647 live signals across 261 matches, found the same way.

LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
75
Omen Score
+3.3%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Jiri Lehecka @ 2.53 — best price at Betano
This is 1 of the live signals on the board right now · see them all with a free account

At detection—15 hours before Jiri Lehecka faces Arthur Fils on the ATP World Tour—a moneyline gap has opened between Betano and the consensus built by independent sharp operators. Betano's decimal odds of 2.58 price one outcome 7.2% above the fair value those professionals have converged on. The mispricing is accessible as of writing; it represents a tradeable market dislocation, not post-game analysis.

That consensus fair line reflects distributed professional judgment rather than any single book's model. One quote sits 4.1 standard deviations removed from the cluster where competing bookmakers have anchored their pricing—a statistical separation well beyond routine market churn.

3 independent sharp sources converge on the consensus pricing in this segment, establishing a benchmark built on multiple professional models rather than isolated guesswork.

This signal aligns with historically profitable patterns in tennis moneyline markets. Settled bets at mid-range odds have accumulated +6.7% ROI across 3060 tracked wagers, establishing precedent for how similar mispricings have resolved.

Dislocations of this magnitude do not linger to first serve. Historical patterns suggest comparable edges in this market segment have typically compressed toward consensus within roughly 9 hours from detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova · WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova @ 3.10
81 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Bwin3.10+7.2%
Sportingbet3.10+7.2%
Sportsinteraction3.10+7.2%
Superbet3.05+5.5%
Sx.Bet3.03+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange3.03+4.8%
Matchbook3.01+4.1%
Betway3.00+3.7%
Casumo3.00+3.7%
Unibet3.00+3.7%
Proline3.00+3.7%
Betjack3.00+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance

Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Fils is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).