WTA Tour · Tennis · Aug 16, 2026 16:10 UTC · avg book margin 5.2%
Shuai ZhangvsAnn Li
Zhang–Li at TonyBet: moneyline sits 5.2% above sharp consensus, 4 hours from first serve
What happened: Final score: 0–2. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +21.0% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 13 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 4 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 4.5 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—4 hours before Shuai Zhang faces Ann Li on the WTA Tour—the moneyline market reveals a split between TonyBet and the sharp consensus. TonyBet's decimal odds of 2.60 on one outcome price 5.2% above the fair value assembled by independent sharp operators. The mispricing is accessible at writing; it represents a tradeable market gap, not post-match analysis.
At 2.5 standard deviations from the consensus cluster, this quote qualifies as a statistical outlier—a dislocation well beyond ordinary market variation.
The consensus benchmark rests on input from 3 independent sharp sources, so the fair value is grounded in distributed professional judgment rather than any single operator's isolated model.
This signal aligns with 2 historically profitable patterns from our Playbook—the strongest iteration across its closed bet sample has delivered +11.1% ROI.
The record across 3034 settled bets in tennis moneyline signals at comparable odds levels shows cumulative +6.9% ROI, establishing precedent for how similar mispricings have resolved.
Mispricings of this magnitude do not linger to first serve. Historical patterns suggest comparable edges in this market segment have typically compressed toward consensus within approximately 9 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Shuai Zhang vs Ann Li
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 16, 2026 20:01 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).