ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 23, 2026 20:30 UTC · avg book margin 4.7%
Arthur FilsvsFrances Tiafoe
Betano is paying 5.5% over the sharp consensus in the moneyline market, 7 hours before first serve
Omenizer detected 10 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
90
Omen Score
+5.5%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Frances Tiafoe
@ 3.04 — best price at Betano
7 hours before Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe (ATP World Tour), bookmakers disagree about the moneyline market — and one side of that disagreement is currently priced 5.5% above the sharp consensus at Betano, at decimal odds of 3.04. This is a live edge, not a post-mortem: the window is open as this page is generated.
One price sits 3.9 standard deviations away from where the rest of the market has settled — a genuine outlier, not ordinary noise.
3 independent sharp sources price this market, so the fair line behind that edge isn't one book's opinion.
This signal fits 4 historically profitable patterns from our Playbook — the strongest has realized +12.1% on settled bets.
Similar bets have paid before: signals in this exact segment — tennis moneyline, mid-range odds — have returned +6.9% ROI across 3314 settled bets tracked on our board.
Edges like this don't wait for first serve: in this market, they have typically held for about 8 hours before the price corrects.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
bwin
3.10
+7.2%
sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
SX.bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
betJACK
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).