WTA Tour · Tennis · Aug 23, 2026 14:00 UTC · avg book margin 7.0%

Jaeda DanielvsYiming Dang

BetNation is paying 7.1% over the sharp consensus in the moneyline market, 11 hours before first serve

What happened: Final score: 2–0. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-0.0% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 11 hours after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: Jaeda Daniel vs Yiming Dang — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at BetNation2.20Fair price2.05+7.1% above fair

Omenizer detected 4 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 11.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

11 hours before Jaeda Daniel vs Yiming Dang (WTA Tour), bookmakers disagree about the moneyline market — and one side of that disagreement is currently priced 7.1% above the sharp consensus at BetNation, at decimal odds of 2.20. This is a live edge, not a post-mortem: the window is open as this page is generated.

One price sits 2.2 standard deviations away from where the rest of the market has settled — a genuine outlier, not ordinary noise.

3 independent sharp sources price this market, so the fair line behind that edge isn't one book's opinion.

This signal fits 2 historically profitable patterns from our Playbook — the strongest has realized +11.9% on settled bets.

Similar bets have paid before: signals in this exact segment — tennis moneyline, mid-range odds — have returned +6.8% ROI across 3305 settled bets tracked on our board.

Edges like this don't wait for first serve: in this market, they have typically held for about 8 hours before the price corrects.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova · WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova @ 3.10
81 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
bwin3.10+7.2%
sportingbet3.10+7.2%
sportsinteraction3.10+7.2%
Superbet3.05+5.5%
SX.bet3.03+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange3.03+4.8%
Matchbook3.01+4.1%
Betway3.00+3.7%
Casumo3.00+3.7%
Unibet3.00+3.7%
Proline3.00+3.7%
betJACK3.00+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Jaeda Daniel vs Yiming Dang is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Aug 23, 2026 16:01 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).