NCAA Division 1 · American Football · Aug 29, 2026 02:00 UTC · avg book margin 6.1%

Cal PolyvsIdaho

Betway is paying 5.1% over the sharp consensus in the Asian handicap market, 9 hours before kickoff

Offered at Betway2.00Fair price1.90+5.1% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 590 live signals across 261 matches, found the same way.

A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
betopenlyCal Poly2.94+0.8%
1xbetIdaho1.56-1.4%
prophet-xCal Poly2.84-2.6%
fanduelIdaho1.53-2.9%
sportsinteractionIdaho1.53-3.3%
sportingbetIdaho1.53-3.3%
bwinIdaho1.53-3.3%
partypokerIdaho1.53-3.3%
borgataIdaho1.53-3.3%
betmgmIdaho1.53-3.3%
novigCal Poly2.82-3.3%
betanoIdaho1.52-3.6%
NedsIdaho1.52-3.6%
Ladbrokes (Australia)Idaho1.52-3.6%
overtimemarketsIdaho1.52-3.8%
novigIdaho1.52-4.0%
play-albertaIdaho1.51-4.3%
saba-sportsIdaho1.51-4.3%
FliffIdaho1.50-5.0%
braccoIdaho1.50-5.0%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

9 hours before Cal Poly vs Idaho (NCAA Division 1), bookmakers disagree about the Asian handicap market — and one side of that disagreement is currently priced 5.1% above the sharp consensus at Betway, at decimal odds of 2.00. This is a live edge, not a post-mortem: the window is open as this page is generated.

One price sits 2.0 standard deviations away from where the rest of the market has settled — a genuine outlier, not ordinary noise.

3 independent sharp sources price this market, so the fair line behind that edge isn't one book's opinion.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Montreal Alouettes · CFL · American Football — flagged side Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 3.80
88 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.5%
Entry edge
+3.2%
Edge near close
+1.0%
Risk-adjusted edge
3.68
Fair price (no-vig)
3.90
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
1.23%
Recommended stake
1.1%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.5%
Shin
-0.1%
Power
+4.5%
Additive
+1.5%
Balanced
-14.9%
Worst case
+4.5%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
espn-bet3.80+3.2%
theScore3.80+3.2%
TABtouch3.75+1.9%
Betfair Exchange3.70+0.5%
4cx3.64-1.1%
bet1053.56-3.3%
Bodog3.55-3.6%
Betano3.55-3.6%
Bovada3.55-3.6%
Coolbet3.55-3.6%
FanDuel3.55-3.6%
PlayNow3.55-3.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.80 odds → 26% implied win probability
27%
Fair win probability
+3.7% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 28, 22:51 UTC at 3.90 (+4.5% edge) → fair price at close 3.68 → closing-line value +1.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.90 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Cal Poly vs Idaho is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).