NFL · American Football · Aug 28, 2026 20:00 EDT · avg book margin 4.9%
Dallas CowboysvsNew Orleans Saints
Marca Apuestas is paying 5.5% over the sharp consensus in the moneyline market, 2 hours before kickoff
What happened: Final score: 24–27. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.61 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-10.7% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 2 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 590 live signals across 261 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 1.6 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
2 hours before Dallas Cowboys vs New Orleans Saints (NFL), bookmakers disagree about the moneyline market — and one side of that disagreement is currently priced 5.5% above the sharp consensus at Marca Apuestas, at decimal odds of 2.61. This is a live edge, not a post-mortem: the window is open as this page is generated.
One price sits 3.4 standard deviations away from where the rest of the market has settled — a genuine outlier, not ordinary noise.
3 independent sharp sources price this market, so the fair line behind that edge isn't one book's opinion.
This signal fits 1 historically profitable pattern from our Playbook — the strongest has realized +11.7% on settled bets.
Similar bets have paid before: signals in this exact segment — american football moneyline, mid-range odds — have returned +26.3% ROI across 64 settled bets tracked on our board.
Edges like this don't wait for kickoff: in this market, they have typically held for about 2 days before the price corrects.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Montreal Alouettes
· CFL · American Football — flagged side Winnipeg Blue Bombers
@ 3.80
88Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.5%
Shin
-0.1%
Power
+4.5%
Additive
+1.5%
Balanced
-14.9%
Worst case
+4.5%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
espn-bet
3.80
+3.2%
theScore
3.80
+3.2%
TABtouch
3.75
+1.9%
Betfair Exchange
3.70
+0.5%
4cx
3.64
-1.1%
bet105
3.56
-3.3%
Bodog
3.55
-3.6%
Betano
3.55
-3.6%
Bovada
3.55
-3.6%
Coolbet
3.55
-3.6%
FanDuel
3.55
-3.6%
PlayNow
3.55
-3.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.80 odds → 26% implied win probability
27%
Fair win probability
+3.7% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 28, 22:51 UTC at 3.90 (+4.5% edge) → fair price at close 3.68 → closing-line value +1.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.90 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Dallas Cowboys vs New Orleans Saints
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 29, 2026 03:03 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).