NCAA Division 1 · American Football · Sep 12, 2026 23:00 UTC
Alabama A and MvsTennessee State
1xBet's Asian handicap quote sits 8.0% above sharp consensus with 2 hours to kickoff
What happened: Final score: 30–3. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +0.4% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 2 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 5 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 1.8 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—2 hours before Alabama A and M meet Tennessee State in NCAA Division 1—sharp operators and retail books have split on the Asian handicap. 1xBet has priced one side at decimal 1.95, a level that sits 8.0% above where independent sharp sources have anchored their consensus fair value. The mismatch is live market data, not retrospective analysis.
When bookmakers fragment on pricing for the same contract, the consensus identifies which side carries value and which is disadvantaged. A widened spread across the market signals genuine disagreement about where true value sits, not routine variance between operators.
The consensus benchmark reflects judgment from 3 independent sharp sources, so the fair line rests on distributed professional input rather than anchoring to any single operator's model.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Montreal Alouettes
· CFL · American Football — flagged side Winnipeg Blue Bombers
@ 3.80
88Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.5%
Shin
-0.1%
Power
+4.5%
Additive
+1.5%
Balanced
-14.9%
Worst case
+4.5%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
espn-bet
3.80
+3.2%
theScore
3.80
+3.2%
TABtouch
3.75
+1.9%
Betfair Exchange
3.70
+0.5%
4cx
3.64
-1.1%
bet105
3.56
-3.3%
Bodog
3.55
-3.6%
Betano
3.55
-3.6%
Bovada
3.55
-3.6%
Coolbet
3.55
-3.6%
FanDuel
3.55
-3.6%
PlayNow
3.55
-3.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.80 odds → 26% implied win probability
27%
Fair win probability
+3.7% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 28, 22:51 UTC at 3.90 (+4.5% edge) → fair price at close 3.66 → closing-line value +2.0%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.90 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Alabama A and M vs Tennessee State
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Sep 13, 2026 06:52 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).