NFL · American Football · Sep 13, 2026 16:25 EDT · avg book margin 3.8%
Las Vegas RaidersvsMiami Dolphins
Raiders–Dolphins Asian handicap: Dabble quotes 6.2% above sharp consensus, 4 hours to kickoff
What happened: Final score: 27–13. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-1.7% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 4 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 34 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 4.2 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—4 hours before Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins begin their NFL matchup—Dabble has priced the Asian handicap at decimal 1.95 on one side, a level sitting 6.2% above where independent sharp operators have anchored their fair value. The mispricing is active market data captured before the opening kickoff.
The Dabble quote diverges 2.4 standard deviations from the consensus cluster—a statistical separation marking genuine structural mispricing rather than routine market noise.
The consensus fair value reflects distributed judgment from 4 independent sharp market participants, anchoring the benchmark across multiple professional models rather than any single operator.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Montreal Alouettes
· CFL · American Football — flagged side Winnipeg Blue Bombers
@ 3.80
88Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.5%
Shin
-0.1%
Power
+4.5%
Additive
+1.5%
Balanced
-14.9%
Worst case
+4.5%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
espn-bet
3.80
+3.2%
theScore
3.80
+3.2%
TABtouch
3.75
+1.9%
Betfair Exchange
3.70
+0.5%
4cx
3.64
-1.1%
bet105
3.56
-3.3%
Bodog
3.55
-3.6%
Betano
3.55
-3.6%
Bovada
3.55
-3.6%
Coolbet
3.55
-3.6%
FanDuel
3.55
-3.6%
PlayNow
3.55
-3.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.80 odds → 26% implied win probability
27%
Fair win probability
+3.7% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 28, 22:51 UTC at 3.90 (+4.5% edge) → fair price at close 3.66 → closing-line value +2.0%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.90 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Sep 13, 2026 23:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).