NCAA Division 1 · American Football · Sep 12, 2026 23:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.1%
Northern IllinoisvsIllinois State
Betfred is paying 18.7% over the sharp consensus in the moneyline market, 5 hours before kickoff
What happened: Final score: 24–28. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-0.6% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 5 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 4 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 5 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
5 hours before Northern Illinois vs Illinois State (NCAA Division 1), bookmakers disagree about the moneyline market — and one side of that disagreement is currently priced 18.7% above the sharp consensus at Betfred, at decimal odds of 2.70. This is a live edge, not a post-mortem: the window is open as this page is generated.
One price sits 4.2 standard deviations away from where the rest of the market has settled — a genuine outlier, not ordinary noise.
4 independent sharp sources price this market, so the fair line behind that edge isn't one book's opinion.
This signal fits 2 historically profitable patterns from our Playbook — the strongest has realized +10.1% on settled bets.
Similar bets have paid before: signals in this exact segment — american football moneyline, mid-range odds — have returned +16.9% ROI across 90 settled bets tracked on our board.
Edges like this don't wait for kickoff: in this market, they have typically held for about 7 hours before the price corrects.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Montreal Alouettes
· CFL · American Football — flagged side Winnipeg Blue Bombers
@ 3.80
88Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.5%
Shin
-0.1%
Power
+4.5%
Additive
+1.5%
Balanced
-14.9%
Worst case
+4.5%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
espn-bet
3.80
+3.2%
theScore
3.80
+3.2%
TABtouch
3.75
+1.9%
Betfair Exchange
3.70
+0.5%
4cx
3.64
-1.1%
bet105
3.56
-3.3%
Bodog
3.55
-3.6%
Betano
3.55
-3.6%
Bovada
3.55
-3.6%
Coolbet
3.55
-3.6%
FanDuel
3.55
-3.6%
PlayNow
3.55
-3.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.80 odds → 26% implied win probability
27%
Fair win probability
+3.7% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 28, 22:51 UTC at 3.90 (+4.5% edge) → fair price at close 3.66 → closing-line value +2.0%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.90 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Northern Illinois vs Illinois State
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Sep 13, 2026 06:52 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).