English Premier League · Soccer · Sep 12, 2026 15:00 BST · avg book margin 5.8%

LiverpoolvsFulham

Asian handicap: CampoBet quoting 5.3% above sharp consensus, 6 hours to start

What happened: Final score: 0–0. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +0.95 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-6.6% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 5 hours after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: Liverpool vs Fulham — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at CampoBet1.95Fair price1.85+5.3% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 725 live signals across 309 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 5.7 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

As of writing—6 hours before Liverpool face Fulham in the English Premier League—sharp and retail sportsbooks diverge on the Asian handicap. One side trades at 1.95 decimal odds on CampoBet, a level sitting 5.3% above where independent sharp sources have anchored their consensus fair value. The mismatch is live market data, not retrospective.

When bookmakers fragment on pricing for the same contract, the consensus identifies which side is disadvantaged and by how much—a widened spread signals genuine disagreement, not routine variance.

Four independent sharp operators contribute to the consensus benchmark, distributing the fair-value judgment across multiple professional models rather than anchoring it to a single book.

This market segment—soccer Asian handicap in the odds-range where this edge appears—has generated +4.2% cumulative ROI across 88 resolved bets in the historical record.

Mispricings at this magnitude typically compress before the match begins. Historical data for comparable edges in this market segment shows consensus-convergence occurring within approximately 3 hours from detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Liverpool vs Fulham is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Sep 12, 2026 16:03 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).