Sergio Callejon HernandovsIlia Simakin
Every tracked price on Sergio Callejon Hernando vs Ilia Simakin, against the same margin-free fair line.
| Bookmaker | Side | Odds | Vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dabble (Australia) | Ilia Simakin | 1.20 | -5.9% |
| Neds | Ilia Simakin | 1.20 | -5.9% |
| Ladbrokes (Australia) | Ilia Simakin | 1.20 | -5.9% |
| draftkings | Ilia Simakin | 1.19 | -6.7% |
| PointsBet (Ontario) | Ilia Simakin | 1.17 | -8.0% |
| betano | Ilia Simakin | 1.17 | -8.3% |
| PointsBet (Australia) | Ilia Simakin | 1.17 | -8.3% |
| betwhale | Ilia Simakin | 1.17 | -8.3% |
| rivalry | Ilia Simakin | 1.17 | -8.3% |
| betplay | Ilia Simakin | 1.17 | -8.3% |
| bcgame | Ilia Simakin | 1.17 | -8.3% |
| 1xbet | Ilia Simakin | 1.17 | -8.5% |
| 888sport | Ilia Simakin | 1.17 | -8.5% |
| Coral | Ilia Simakin | 1.17 | -8.6% |
| ladbrokes | Ilia Simakin | 1.17 | -8.6% |
| bet99 | Ilia Simakin | 1.17 | -8.6% |
| sportzino | Ilia Simakin | 1.17 | -8.6% |
| ibet | Ilia Simakin | 1.16 | -9.1% |
| rizk | Ilia Simakin | 1.16 | -9.1% |
| betsafe | Ilia Simakin | 1.16 | -9.1% |
| betsson | Ilia Simakin | 1.16 | -9.1% |
| theScore | Ilia Simakin | 1.16 | -9.1% |
| Unibet (United Kingdom) | Ilia Simakin | 1.16 | -9.1% |
| betdeluxe | Ilia Simakin | 1.16 | -9.1% |
| surgebet | Ilia Simakin | 1.16 | -9.1% |
| betnation-au | Ilia Simakin | 1.16 | -9.1% |
| sportsinteraction | Ilia Simakin | 1.16 | -9.1% |
| bwin | Ilia Simakin | 1.16 | -9.1% |
| sportingbet | Ilia Simakin | 1.16 | -9.1% |
| fanduel | Ilia Simakin | 1.15 | -9.6% |
| betway | Ilia Simakin | 1.15 | -9.9% |
| superbet | Ilia Simakin | 1.15 | -9.9% |
| play-alberta | Ilia Simakin | 1.14 | -10.6% |
| fanduel | Sergio Callejon Hernando | 4.90 | -18.6% |
| theScore | Sergio Callejon Hernando | 4.90 | -18.6% |
| superbet | Sergio Callejon Hernando | 4.90 | -18.6% |
| betano | Sergio Callejon Hernando | 4.85 | -19.4% |
| betfair-ex | Ilia Simakin | 1.03 | -19.4% |
| Betfair Exchange (Australia) | Ilia Simakin | 1.03 | -19.4% |
| PointsBet (Australia) | Sergio Callejon Hernando | 4.75 | -21.1% |
No-vig fair odds (margin removed): Sergio Callejon Hernando 6.02 · Ilia Simakin 1.28. How fair prices are made. Step through the devig math.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled match
PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90
Omen Score
Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
| Bookmaker | Odds | Vs fair |
|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.69 | +5.1% |
| bet105 | 2.66 | +3.9% |
| SX.bet | 2.63 | +2.7% |
| Matchbook | 2.63 | +2.7% |
| Prophet X | 2.63 | +2.7% |
| Tailgate Exchange | 2.63 | +2.7% |
| STN Sports | 2.62 | +2.3% |
| Betfair Exchange | 2.62 | +2.3% |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.62 | +2.3% |
| 4cx | 2.61 | +1.9% |
| Novig | 2.60 | +1.6% |
| Winpot | 2.60 | +1.6% |
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Sergio Callejon Hernando vs Ilia Simakin
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