Sebastian SorgervsLuca Castagnola
Every tracked price on Sebastian Sorger vs Luca Castagnola, against the same margin-free fair line.
| Bookmaker | Side | Odds | Vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (USA) | Sebastian Sorger | 1.14 | -5.2% |
| Kalshi | Sebastian Sorger | 1.13 | -6.4% |
| Betano | Sebastian Sorger | 1.11 | -7.8% |
| Hard Rock | Sebastian Sorger | 1.10 | -8.6% |
| 1XBet | Sebastian Sorger | 1.10 | -8.6% |
| Unibet | Sebastian Sorger | 1.10 | -8.6% |
| 888sport | Sebastian Sorger | 1.10 | -8.6% |
| SugarHouse | Sebastian Sorger | 1.10 | -8.6% |
| BetRivers | Sebastian Sorger | 1.10 | -8.6% |
| TwinSpires | Sebastian Sorger | 1.10 | -8.6% |
| Four Winds | Sebastian Sorger | 1.10 | -8.6% |
| RushBet | Sebastian Sorger | 1.10 | -8.6% |
| Desert Diamond | Sebastian Sorger | 1.10 | -8.6% |
| Sportzino | Sebastian Sorger | 1.10 | -8.6% |
| Coral | Sebastian Sorger | 1.10 | -8.6% |
| Ladbrokes | Sebastian Sorger | 1.10 | -8.6% |
| Sports Interaction | Sebastian Sorger | 1.09 | -9.3% |
| Sportingbet | Sebastian Sorger | 1.09 | -9.3% |
| bwin | Sebastian Sorger | 1.09 | -9.3% |
| BC.GAME | Sebastian Sorger | 1.09 | -9.4% |
| Betplay | Sebastian Sorger | 1.09 | -9.4% |
| Rivalry | Sebastian Sorger | 1.09 | -9.4% |
| betwhale | Sebastian Sorger | 1.09 | -9.4% |
| DraftKings | Sebastian Sorger | 1.08 | -10.0% |
| Superbet | Sebastian Sorger | 1.08 | -10.2% |
| 1XBet | Luca Castagnola | 6.50 | -28.1% |
| DraftKings | Luca Castagnola | 6.50 | -28.1% |
| 888sport | Luca Castagnola | 6.00 | -33.7% |
| Coral | Luca Castagnola | 6.00 | -33.7% |
| Ladbrokes | Luca Castagnola | 6.00 | -33.7% |
| Superbet | Luca Castagnola | 5.85 | -35.3% |
| Unibet | Luca Castagnola | 5.80 | -35.9% |
| SugarHouse | Luca Castagnola | 5.80 | -35.9% |
| BetRivers | Luca Castagnola | 5.80 | -35.9% |
| TwinSpires | Luca Castagnola | 5.80 | -35.9% |
| Four Winds | Luca Castagnola | 5.80 | -35.9% |
| RushBet | Luca Castagnola | 5.80 | -35.9% |
| Desert Diamond | Luca Castagnola | 5.80 | -35.9% |
| Hard Rock | Luca Castagnola | 5.75 | -36.4% |
| Sports Interaction | Luca Castagnola | 5.75 | -36.4% |
No-vig fair odds (margin removed): Sebastian Sorger 1.20 · Luca Castagnola 9.05. How fair prices are made. Step through the devig math.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled match
PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81
Omen Score
Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
| Bookmaker | Odds | Vs fair |
|---|---|---|
| bwin | 3.10 | +7.2% |
| sportingbet | 3.10 | +7.2% |
| sportsinteraction | 3.10 | +7.2% |
| Superbet | 3.05 | +5.5% |
| SX.bet | 3.03 | +4.8% |
| Tailgate Exchange | 3.03 | +4.8% |
| Matchbook | 3.01 | +4.1% |
| Betway | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| Casumo | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| Unibet | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| Proline | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| betJACK | 3.00 | +3.7% |
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Sebastian Sorger vs Luca Castagnola
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Live reference — prices refresh with this page (10-minute cache) and can change at the bookmaker. Not betting advice. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).