Reds–Pirates Asian handicap: Hard Rock soft by 3.3% to sharp consensus, 7 hours until first pitch
What happened: Final score: 1–4. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.50 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-2.5% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 7 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 6.6 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
Hard Rock is quoting decimal odds of 2.50 on one side of the Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Asian handicap—a price that trades 3.3% below where sharp operators have converged, with 7 hours until first pitch. The dislocation is live and measurable; the market is still moving as this page loads.
The Hard Rock quote sits 2.6 standard deviations outside the cluster of competing prices, placing it beyond the threshold of routine daily fluctuation.
Two independent sharp sources anchor the consensus, so the fair value behind this edge reflects professional alignment rather than a single operator's view.
Six patterns from our Playbook apply to this setup; the highest-conviction variant has posted +19.0% ROI on its settled bets.
Baseball Asian handicap trades at mid-range odds have shown durability: 135 settled bets in this category have returned +18.4% ROI across our tracked board.
Mispricings in this market segment typically erode before first pitch—comparable edges have held for roughly 15 minutes on average before repricing compresses the advantage.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 02, 2026 02:43 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).