MLB · Baseball · Aug 28, 2026 19:10 EDT · avg book margin 5.0%
Tampa Bay RaysvsSan Diego Padres
Bovada is paying 2.1% over the sharp consensus in the Asian handicap market, 19 hours before first pitch
Omenizer detected 3 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
94
Omen Score
+1.7%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
4
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Tampa Bay Rays
@ 2.80 — best price at Bovada
19 hours before Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres (MLB), bookmakers disagree about the Asian handicap market — and one side of that disagreement is currently priced 2.1% above the sharp consensus at Bovada, at decimal odds of 2.80. This is a live edge, not a post-mortem: the window is open as this page is generated.
One price sits 2.1 standard deviations away from where the rest of the market has settled — a genuine outlier, not ordinary noise.
4 independent sharp sources price this market, so the fair line behind that edge isn't one book's opinion.
Similar bets have paid before: signals in this exact segment — baseball Asian handicap, mid-range odds — have returned +36.8% ROI across 133 settled bets tracked on our board.
Edges like this don't wait for first pitch: in this market, they have typically held for about 8 hours before the price corrects.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres
is on the member board now ·
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).