MLB · Baseball · Aug 04, 2026 19:10 EDT · avg book margin 8.8%
Boston Red SoxvsChicago White Sox
Totals market splits 3.5% wide — sharp consensus vs outlier pricing, 16 hours from start
What happened: Final score: 14–2. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-2.1% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 16 hours after detection before the edge closed.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 15.6 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection, 16 hours before first pitch in Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox (MLB), the totals market exposes a pricing rift: one bookmaker is quoting 3.5% above where independent sharp operators have anchored their consensus. The disagreement is measurable and unresolved at this moment.
That consensus is built on convergence among 21 independent sharp sources, which means the fair value underlying this edge rests on professional alignment rather than a single outlier opinion.
Our Playbook identifies 5 historical patterns that align with this signal structure. The most reliable of those patterns has delivered +15.6% ROI when settled.
Pricing dislocations in this exact slice—baseball totals at mid-range odds—have accumulated +3.4% cumulative ROI across 671 settled bets in our tracked record.
Gaps of this magnitude have typically compressed before game time, historically persisting for around 20 hours after detection before the market self-corrects.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 05, 2026 02:01 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).