MLB · Baseball · Aug 04, 2026 19:05 EDT · avg book margin 4.5%
New York YankeesvsSt. Louis Cardinals
Yankees–Cardinals moneyline: Hard Rock quotes 2.7% above sharp consensus, 13 hours to first pitch
What happened: Final score: 2–0. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-14.3% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 19 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 6 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 13.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
As of 13 hours before first pitch in New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals (MLB), Hard Rock's moneyline pricing sits at decimal odds of 2.60—a 2.7% overquote relative to where independent sharp operators have anchored their consensus. The spread between retail and professional opinion remains uncompressed at detection.
This price deviation stretches 3.0 standard deviations from the consensus cluster—a statistical outlier that transcends normal market chatter.
Six independent sharp sources form the consensus baseline, so the theoretical fair value embedded in this edge reflects professional agreement rather than any single operator's premise.
Eight patterns from our Playbook align with this signal. The highest-performing precedent has clocked +15.6% ROI across its settled history.
Baseball moneyline edges in this odds band have accumulated +12.9% cumulative ROI across 565 settled bets tracked on our board—this signal sits within that exact segment.
Dislocations of this width have historically compressed in roughly 9 hours, as the market corrects toward first pitch.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 05, 2026 01:42 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).