MLB · Baseball · Aug 06, 2026 12:35 EDT · avg book margin 4.3%
Baltimore OriolesvsLos Angeles Angels
YouWager's moneyline odds sit 2.9% soft to sharp consensus, 13 hours before first pitch
What happened: Final score: 1–4. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.54 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-10.4% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 13 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 7 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 13.2 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—13 hours before Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels (MLB)—the moneyline market shows a pricing split. YouWager has quoted decimal odds of 2.54 on one side, a 2.9% underquote relative to the consensus established by independent sharp operators. The dislocation remains unresolved as of writing.
The YouWager quote sits 2.5 standard deviations away from the cluster where competing bookmakers have anchored their pricing—a statistical anomaly indicating real disagreement rather than routine market noise.
That consensus draws on 4 independent sharp sources, so the underlying fair value behind this edge rests on multiple professional assessments rather than any single operator's judgment.
The signal aligns with 9 patterns in our Playbook; the strongest has delivered +14.6% ROI across its settled bets.
Baseball moneyline edges in this odds range have accumulated +12.3% cumulative ROI across 575 settled bets on our tracker—this signal sits within that historical performance band.
Pricing gaps of this magnitude at detection have historically compressed within about 9 hours before the market corrects toward consensus.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 06, 2026 19:45 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).