Yankees–Braves Asian handicap trades 2.0% above sharp consensus at hard-rock-bet, 14 hours to first pitch
What happened: Final score: 3–2. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-8.9% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 22 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 666 live signals across 275 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 14.2 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—14 hours before the New York Yankees face the Atlanta Braves in MLB—the Asian handicap market splinters between hard-rock-bet and professional sharp sources. One side is quoted at decimal odds of 2.45, a 2.0% overquote relative to where independent operators have anchored consensus value. The pricing gap has not yet closed.
The hard-rock-bet quote sits 2.0 standard deviations above the professional cluster—a statistical separation indicating genuine disagreement rather than typical market scatter.
Our Playbook identifies 5 historical patterns matching this setup. The highest-returning pattern has posted +14.9% ROI on its settled sample.
Bets in this segment—baseball Asian handicap, mid-range decimal odds—have accumulated +17.5% ROI across 149 settled wagers on record.
Pricing dislocations of this magnitude have historically tightened in roughly 43 minutes as the market converges toward the professional consensus and the edge compresses.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 08, 2026 04:22 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).