MLB · Baseball · Aug 08, 2026 16:10 EDT · avg book margin 4.5%
Boston Red SoxvsAthletics
Red Sox–Athletics moneyline at Marca Apuestas trades 2.6% soft to the sharp cluster, 17 hours before first pitch
What happened: Final score: 3–7. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.97 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-30.9% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 24 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 4 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 16.6 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—17 hours before Boston Red Sox play Athletics (MLB)—the moneyline market fragments across books. Marca Apuestas has quoted decimal odds of 3.13 on one side, pricing it 2.6% below where independent sharp operators have anchored consensus. The dislocation persists unresolved.
That Marca Apuestas quote sits 3.1 standard deviations from the cluster where competing sportsbooks have converged—a statistical anomaly signaling genuine disagreement rather than routine market drift.
Six independent sharp sources form the consensus backing this edge, ensuring the theoretical fair value does not rest on any single professional operator's view.
Our Playbook matches this configuration to 10 historical patterns. The strongest has delivered +14.3% ROI across its settled record.
Dislocations of this type have paid before: baseball moneyline signals in the mid-range odds segment have accumulated +12.5% ROI across 578 settled bets tracked on our board.
Pricing gaps of this width have historically compressed in roughly 9 hours as the market drifts toward consensus and the edge narrows.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Boston Red Sox vs Athletics
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 08, 2026 23:12 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).