Pirates–Mets Asian handicap shows 2.8% Bovada premium over sharp consensus, 25 hours to first pitch
What happened: Final score: 9–0. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.65 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-6.9% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 25 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 24.6 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—25 hours before Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets take the field—the Asian handicap market is fragmented. Bovada is quoting decimal odds of 2.65 on one side, a price sitting 2.8% above where sharp operators have clustered their consensus. The dislocation remains open at this writing.
Our Playbook identifies 1 historical pattern in this setup; the leading variant has delivered +4.7% return on its closed bets.
The category—MLB Asian handicap at mid-range odds—has accumulated +17.5% ROI across 149 settled wagers in our tracking record.
Pricing gaps of this width have historically persisted for roughly 37 minutes before sharper liquidity narrows them toward fair value.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 09, 2026 01:22 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).