MLB · Baseball · Aug 08, 2026 16:00 EDT

San Francisco GiantsvsDetroit Tigers

Giants-Tigers: William Hill lagged 19 minutes as the market repriced 12 points, leaving bettors a 2% edge on San Francisco

+2% window, 19 min37%48%59% market median William Hill (slowest)

At 217 minutes into San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers (MLB), the market shifted without prompting from the field. The implied probability of a San Francisco Giants win jumped from 39% to 51% across 145+ bookmakers in just 4 minutes—and stayed there. The repricing carried genuine market signal.

Adjustment speed split sharply across the board. Betfair Exchange and STN Sports moved within approximately 1 minute; the median response among 7 books that repriced was 19 minutes. The laggards: William Hill, Caesars, and Bovada all took 19 minutes to catch up.

As of writing, that window is closed—which makes the full picture available. For 19 minutes at detection, bettors positioned at William Hill could have taken San Francisco Giants at a stale quote, capturing roughly 2% better value than the repriced consensus. A 1-point gap remained visible on the board for the entire lag.

Chasing the sharp money into a repricing does not work. The actual edge lives elsewhere: tracking which operators habitually move slowest when fresh information arrives, then betting that pattern when it recurs. Our board logs exactly those delays, pre-match and in-play alike.

Historical, aggregate market data — not betting advice and not a guarantee. In-play prices move violently; markets adapt; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard Rock2.15+0.9%
espn-bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
sport8882.05-3.8%
betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).