MLB · Baseball · Aug 09, 2026 13:35 EDT · avg book margin 5.0%
New York YankeesvsAtlanta Braves
Yankees-Braves Asian handicap at CampoBet trades 61.1% soft to sharp consensus, 19 hours before first pitch
What happened: Final score: 1–2. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.72 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-0.7% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 2 minutes after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 666 live signals across 275 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 18.6 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
As of 19 hours before first pitch in New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves (MLB), the Asian handicap market carries a sharp divergence: CampoBet's decimal odds of 2.72 on one side run 61.1% above where independent professionals have clustered their estimates. The mispricing is detectable at this moment, not after the game settles.
The CampoBet quote lands 6.1 standard deviations beyond the sharp consensus—a statistical distance that removes random variation from the explanation.
Four separate sharp operators have priced this market independently, so the fair line anchoring this edge does not rest on a single bookmaker's judgment.
Our Playbook flags 10 historical patterns aligned with this signal. The pattern with the highest historical yield has delivered +18.0% on closed bets.
Baseball Asian handicap edges at mid-range decimal odds have generated +15.9% cumulative ROI across 151 settled bets in our tracked database—a reference class suggesting this structure fits a profitable mold.
Historically, dislocations in this market segment have compressed within roughly 44 minutes as sharper money recalibrates the line toward consensus.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 09, 2026 20:12 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).