MLB · Baseball · Aug 09, 2026 16:10 EDT · avg book margin 4.8%
Seattle MarinersvsTampa Bay Rays
Mariners-Rays moneyline: Prophet X pricing 2.7% above the sharp cluster, 11 hours until first pitch
What happened: Final score: 1–4. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-7.3% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 17 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 10.9 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The moneyline for Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays splits the sportsbook landscape at detection—11 hours before the matchup begins. Prophet X has quoted decimal odds of 1.92 on one outcome, pricing it 2.7% higher than the consensus built by sharp operators. The gap is real and still open to action as of writing.
Prophet X's quote sits 3.0 standard deviations away from where competing books have converged on fair value. That scale of deviation reflects structural disagreement, not the routine scatter of market noise.
Four separate patterns from our historical Playbook align with this setup. The strongest of them has delivered +13.4% return on settled bets in similar circumstances.
Baseball moneyline edges at these odds levels carry a documented record: 364 settled bets in this exact category have returned +2.8% cumulative ROI, tracked on our board.
Price gaps in this market segment have typically compressed before first pitch. Historically, edges of this type have persisted for roughly 9 hours before the books realign.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 10, 2026 06:34 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).