ITF Women · Tennis · Aug 11, 2026 15:12 UTC · avg book margin 8.2%
Lara Isabella KralusvsNathalia Pontes Tourinho
15.6% moneyline mispricing moved toward detection price before serve, closing with +45.9% CLV despite the loss
Omenizer detected 7 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection, Neds quoted the moneyline for Lara Isabella Kralus vs Nathalia Pontes Tourinho (ITF Women) at decimal 3.25 — a divergence of 15.6% above sharp consensus. The inefficiency was executable on the board until the match began. The final score came in 2–1 against the flagged side.
Single outcomes amount to coin flips layered around the edge; we publish the signal whether it lands or doesn't. The bet lost this time. What matters is what happened in the market, not what happened on court.
Between detection and kickoff, the market repriced toward the flagged side by +45.9%, closing substantially better than where we caught it. That closing-line value is how professionals measure detection: variance makes results unpredictable, but repricing toward your side is structural and repeatable.
Across 2841 settled signals in tennis moneyline at this odds range, aggregate return stands at +6.5% ROI.
This detection was generated before the match started, not after the scoreline landed. The live board surfaces mispricings as they form and holds each signal visible only while the executable window remains open.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Lara Isabella Kralus vs Nathalia Pontes Tourinho
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 12, 2026 07:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).