MLB · Baseball · Aug 11, 2026 21:45 EDT · avg book margin 5.2%
San Francisco GiantsvsHouston Astros
Giants–Astros Asian handicap shows 57.3% overround at Marca Apuestas versus sharp consensus, 25 hours to first pitch
What happened: Final score: 4–1. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +2.22 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +1.3% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 21 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 25.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The Asian handicap for San Francisco Giants–Houston Astros (MLB) exhibits a split between Marca Apuestas and the professional consensus at detection—25 hours before first pitch. One side trades at decimal odds of 3.22, a markup of 57.3% above where sharp operators have settled the same outcome. The dislocation is current, not archived: the pricing gap remains open at the time of writing.
Marca Apuestas sits 3.5 standard deviations outside the cluster of competing books—a structural breach, not typical market churn.
Two independent sharp sources underpin the consensus price, so the theoretical fair value behind this edge does not rest on a single operator's judgment.
This exact configuration—baseball Asian handicap at mid-range odds—has appeared before in our archive and delivered +20.3% ROI across 169 resolved wagers.
These dislocations typically compress before the opening pitch. Historical data from this market segment shows comparable edges persist for roughly 31 minutes from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for San Francisco Giants vs Houston Astros
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 12, 2026 04:29 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).