Cardinals–Phillies totals edge at hard-rock-bet: 8.7% overpriced versus sharp consensus, 8 hours to first pitch
What happened: Final score: 2–0. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.25 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +0.6% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 0 minutes after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 8.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—8 hours before St. Louis Cardinals take on Philadelphia Phillies (MLB)—a totals quote at hard-rock-bet sits 8.7% above where independent sharp operators have anchored their consensus, priced at decimal odds of 2.25. The dislocation is measurable and unresolved; the market remains open until first pitch.
When bookmakers scatter this wide on a single outcome, disagreement becomes visible data. Sharp consensus marks the likely edge.
Nine independent sharp sources converge on the consensus price, anchoring the fair value across multiple operators rather than betting against a lone outlier.
Baseball totals in this odds band have generated +3.9% ROI across 688 settled instances tracked in the archive—a segment where similar dislocations have produced measurable return.
Pricing errors at this magnitude typically persist roughly 20 hours from detection before market correction erases the edge.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 12, 2026 02:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).