MLB · Baseball · Aug 12, 2026 15:40 EDT · avg book margin 5.5%

Arizona DiamondbacksvsColorado Rockies

Diamondbacks 4, Rockies 6: moneyline sat 6.4% soft at detection, market repriced higher by kickoff

Offered at LeoVegas2.80Fair price2.63+6.4% above fair

Omenizer detected 19 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection, LeoVegas priced the Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline in the matchup against Colorado Rockies (MLB) at decimal 2.80—a 6.4% discount to the sharp consensus. The board surfaced the opportunity before first pitch, allowing bettors to lock in the price while the window remained open.

Arizona lost 4–6. A 1-unit stake on the flagged side returned +1.80 units.

Between detection and kickoff, the market moved +0.8% toward the flagged side—positive closing-line value. Professionals build edges on CLV, not outcomes, because market repricing compounds across many bets while single results remain statistical variance.

MLB moneyline signals at this odds tier have produced +14.9% ROI across 599 settled detections on the board.

Detection happens before kickoff, not after. The live board surfaces these mispricings as they form, and this page was generated at detection by the same engine that runs every day, then archived with the result once the game settled.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard Rock2.15+0.9%
espn-bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
sport8882.05-3.8%
betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

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Record settled · last updated Aug 14, 2026 10:09 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).