MLB · Baseball · Aug 12, 2026 16:00 EDT

San Francisco GiantsvsHouston Astros

Giants-Astros: San Francisco traded 7 points soft at Duel for 9 minutes as market absorbed an 18-point repricing

+7% window, 9 min41%57%74% market median Duel (slowest)

At the 43-minute mark of San Francisco Giants vs Houston Astros (MLB), the market shifted without a scoreboard catalyst. Across 141+ bookmakers, San Francisco Giants' implied win probability jumped from 47% to 64% in roughly 6 minutes—then stayed there. Information had found the market.

The repricing was not instantaneous. Coral and Ladbrokes UK moved first, within about 1 minute. The median adjustment time among the 6 books that repriced: 9 minutes. Duel, Overtime Markets, and Ladbrokes UK each lagged 9 minutes behind the fastest movers.

The window has closed, so the full damage is now measurable. At Duel, bettors could have backed San Francisco Giants at a stale price for roughly 9 minutes—about 7 percentage points softer than what the repriced consensus had settled on. An 4-point gap sat visible on the board for the duration. Live markets open these pockets constantly; the trick is detecting them before they seal.

Chasing the fastest operators into their next repricing is futile. The actual play is knowing which books move last, and tracking that delay as it unfolds. Our board maps exactly that lag pattern, both before kickoff and during live action.

Historical, aggregate market data — not betting advice and not a guarantee. In-play prices move violently; markets adapt; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard Rock2.15+0.9%
espn-bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
sport8882.05-3.8%
betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for San Francisco Giants vs Houston Astros is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).