CFL · American Football · Aug 13, 2026 21:00 EDT · avg book margin 5.1%

Calgary StampedersvsBC Lions

Moneyline: 1xBet quotes 7.0% soft to sharp consensus, 8 hours to kickoff

What happened: Final score: 26–30. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +2.10 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +7.8% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 8 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Offered at 1xBet3.10Fair price2.90+7.0% above fair

Omenizer detected 21 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 7.7 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection—8 hours before Calgary Stampeders meet BC Lions in the CFL—1xBet's moneyline quote sits visibly apart from where professional oddsmakers have anchored fair value. The decimal odds of 3.10 represent a 7.0% undervaluation relative to the sharp consensus. This pricing gap remains live and available to bettors.

The 1xBet quote lands 4.0 standard deviations beyond the consensus cluster—a structural mispricing, not routine volatility.

The consensus itself is built on calibration across 3 independent sharp sources, so the underlying fair value does not anchor to any single book's model.

This exact signal type—moneyline mispricings in the mid-odds range—has a documented track record: 34 settled bets across our archive returned +10.2% cumulative ROI.

Mispricings at this scale do not persist passively. Comparable dislocations in moneyline markets have historically compressed toward consensus in roughly 4 days from detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
Betplay1.91-0.8%
Rivalry1.91-0.8%
Betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
Sx.Bet1.88-2.4%
Betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +6.4% settled ROI on 47% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.1% settled ROI on 39% winners
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.2% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance

Based on 82 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+4.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+4.1% 🔒
Average return
+8.6% 🔒
Beat the closing line
60%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +6.2% to +5.1% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 14, 2026 04:11 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).