NFL · American Football · Aug 13, 2026 20:00 EDT

Houston TexansvsLos Angeles Chargers

Texans-Chargers at 132 minutes: Houston's win probability crashed 21 points in 7 minutes, TonyBet held outdated odds for 12 minutes

21pp window, 12 min1%25%49% market median TonyBet (slowest)

With Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) 132 minutes underway, the market shifted on pure inference. The live consensus pulled Houston Texans' implied win probability from 30% down to 9% across 109+ bookmakers within 7 minutes—and the repricing stuck. No scoreboard moment triggered it; the information had simply arrived.

How fast did the field move? Bally Bet and BetNation were earliest, adjusting in roughly 2 minutes. Among the 84 books that followed at all, the median took 7 minutes. Three operators dragged furthest: TonyBet at 12 minutes, theScore and partypoker each at 7 minutes.

That lag window is now closed, so the full picture can be shown. For 12 minutes as of detection, any bettor positioned on Los Angeles Chargers at TonyBet's stale price held an edge over the repriced field, while a 21-point gap remained plainly visible. Dislocations like this puncture live markets every single day; the hard part is catching them while they still breathe.

You cannot outrun the fastest operators to the repricing—but you do not need to. What matters is knowing which books lag structurally, then tracking where their gaps close. Our board monitors exactly that operator delay, both live and before kickoff.

Historical, aggregate market data — not betting advice and not a guarantee. In-play prices move violently; markets adapt; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions · CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions @ 3.10
92 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+7.0%
Entry edge
+17.6%
Edge near close
2.64
Fair price (no-vig)
3.10
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.16%
Recommended stake
8.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
1xBet3.10+17.6%
Casumo2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Proline2.65+0.5%
Betparx2.65+0.5%
LeoVegas2.65+0.5%
TABtouch2.65+0.5%
Bally Bet2.65+0.5%
BetNation2.65+0.5%
BetRivers2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Past performance

Based on 8,054 similar market conditions over the last 90 days

+2.4% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.1% 🔒
Average return
+8.1% 🔒
Beat the closing line
35%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +8.1% to +4.7% 🔒
Statistically reliable loser: even the best case still loses
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).