MLB · Baseball · Aug 13, 2026 13:35 EDT · avg book margin 5.0%

New York YankeesvsSeattle Mariners

Yankees–Mariners Asian handicap: 1xBet overprices the field consensus by 68.9%, 21 hours from first pitch

What happened: Final score: 0–1. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.85 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +0.7% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 0 minutes after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at 1xBet2.85Fair price1.69+68.9% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 21.2 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection—21 hours before New York Yankees take on Seattle Mariners in MLB—1xBet's Asian handicap quote has separated from the professional consensus. The decimal odds of 2.85 represent a 68.9% overvaluation relative to the consensus fair line established by independent sharp operators. The pricing gap sits unresolved and available to bettors as of writing.

1xBet's position occupies 4.6 standard deviations beyond the consensus cluster—structural disagreement with competing books rather than routine market drift.

The consensus fair value draws from 2 independent sharp sources, anchoring the comparison in multiple professional operators rather than a single book's positioning.

Baseball Asian handicap trades in this price band have a documented track record: 194 settled bets tracked in our archive returned +23.5% cumulative ROI—a reference point for how comparable dislocations have resolved.

Pricing gaps of this magnitude rarely persist through first pitch. Historical data from this market segment indicates comparable edges typically compress toward consensus within roughly 72 minutes from detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard Rock2.15+0.9%
espn-bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
sport8882.05-3.8%
betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 13, 2026 20:42 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).