MLB · Baseball · Aug 13, 2026 16:00 EDT

New York YankeesvsSeattle Mariners

Yankees–Mariners: Betfair Exchange (AU) stayed 13 points soft for 6 minutes as the live market repriced 13 points

13pp window, 6 min-11%42%94% market median Betfair Exchange (AU) (slowest)

At the 22-minute mark of New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners (MLB), the market shifted on fresh information alone—no scoreboard event triggered it. Across 144+ bookmakers, Seattle Mariners' win probability jumped from 7% to 20% over the next 6 minutes, then stabilized. The move showed how live markets absorb information.

Repricing speed varied sharply across the field. BC.Game and Betfair Exchange closed the gap in roughly 1 minute; among the 106 books that repriced, the median time to adjustment was 2 minutes. Three operators lagged furthest: Betfair Exchange (AU) at 6 minutes, crypto.com at 5 minutes, and betjack at 5 minutes.

That opening is sealed now, which means the full record is clear. For 6 minutes as of detection, bettors could have taken Seattle Mariners at Betfair Exchange (AU)'s stale quote—13 points wider than the repriced consensus—while the gap sat visible on the board. Dislocations of this scale surface in live markets constantly; the difficulty lies in spotting them before they close.

You cannot arrive ahead of the fastest books at their repricing. What you can do is map which operators consistently fall behind, then observe that lag unfold as it happens. Our board logs operator-level gaps across pre-match and live slate.

Historical, aggregate market data — not betting advice and not a guarantee. In-play prices move violently; markets adapt; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard Rock2.15+0.9%
espn-bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
sport8882.05-3.8%
betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).