ITF Women · Tennis · Aug 14, 2026 10:30 UTC · avg book margin 8.3%
Alana SmithvsJulia Avdeeva
Alana Smith over Julia Avdeeva 2–0: 16.4% mispricing at Rushbet closed with positive market repricing
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 641 live signals across 260 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection, the ITF Women moneyline between Alana Smith and Julia Avdeeva displayed a pricing inefficiency: Rushbet's decimal 3.10 diverged 16.4% from the sharp consensus. The board surfaced this gap before kickoff, offering a brief window to capture that price.
Smith took the match 2–0. A 1-unit stake on the flagged outcome returned +2.10 units.
What matters across a portfolio: closing-line value. Between detection and kickoff, the market repriced +0.6% toward the flagged side. This systematic movement is what professionals measure, because outcomes fluctuate while pricing efficiency compounds.
Tennis moneyline signals at these odds levels have produced +6.9% ROI across 3032 settled detections on our board.
Detection runs before kickoff through the algorithm that identifies edges daily. The live board shows them while execution remains open, not retroactively after settlement.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Alana Smith vs Julia Avdeeva
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 16, 2026 10:11 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).