MLB · Baseball · Aug 14, 2026 18:40 EDT · avg book margin 5.2%

Detroit TigersvsChicago White Sox

Bodog quotes the Asian handicap 2.4% softer than sharp operators, 21 hours before first pitch

What happened: Final score: 5–9. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-7.5% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 21 hours after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at Bodog2.50Fair price2.44+2.4% above fair

Omenizer detected 4 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 20.6 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection—21 hours before Detroit Tigers play Chicago White Sox (MLB)—the Asian handicap market shows a structural split. Bodog's decimal odds of 2.50 price the outcome 2.4% below the sharp consensus, creating a measurable gap while the mispricing window remains open.

The Bodog quote sits 2.1 standard deviations beyond the consensus cluster—structural misalignment, not routine market noise.

Three independent sharp sources converge on the fair line, so the consensus reflects multiple professional operators, not a single bookmaker's model.

This signal maps onto 2 historically profitable patterns from the Playbook. The stronger pattern has posted +22.7% ROI on its settled bet cohort.

The archive tracks 218 settled bets in baseball Asian handicap at mid-range odds. Comparable pricing dislocations have returned +23.7% ROI total, establishing a historical precedent for how such gaps resolve.

Pricing edges in this market segment do not persist through first pitch. Comparable signals have typically compressed toward consensus parity within approximately 2 hours from detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard Rock2.15+0.9%
espn-bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
sport8882.05-3.8%
betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 15, 2026 01:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).