MLB · Baseball · Aug 14, 2026 20:10 EDT · avg book margin 5.0%
Houston AstrosvsSeattle Mariners
Astros–Mariners Asian handicap at FanDuel: 2.9% overpriced versus sharp consensus, 13 hours to first pitch
What happened: Final score: 10–7. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.75 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-5.7% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 28 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 13.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
FanDuel's Asian handicap quote for the Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners matchup (MLB) stands disconnected from professional consensus at decimal odds of 2.80—a 2.9% premium over where sharp operators have calibrated fair value. At detection, 13 hours before first pitch, the mispricing remains available to bettors.
The FanDuel price deviates 2.5 standard deviations from the cluster where competing books have aligned—a structural outlier, not the ordinary scatter of market drift.
The consensus fair line draws from 4 independent sharp sources, ensuring the baseline is not one operator's proprietary model.
This signal type matches 2 patterns in our historical playbook with documented payoff; the most consistent has delivered +23.7% across settled bets.
Baseball Asian handicap signals in the mid-odds range have a recorded track record: 222 settled bets in this segment have compounded to +25.6% ROI.
Price dislocations in this market typically contract before game time; comparable edges have historically closed within roughly 2 hours.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 15, 2026 03:51 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).