MLB · Baseball · Aug 14, 2026 18:40 EDT · avg book margin 6.0%
Pittsburgh PiratesvsBoston Red Sox
Pirates–Red Sox Asian handicap: 1xBet quotes 85.0% above sharp consensus, 24 hours to first pitch
What happened: Final score: 8–4. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +2.33 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +8.4% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 24 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 24.3 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
One side of the Asian handicap market in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox (MLB) sits at decimal odds of 3.33 on 1xBet — a level 85.0% higher than where independent sharp operators have clustered. At detection, 24 hours before first pitch, that mispricing remains available for action.
The separation measures 5.4 standard deviations from consensus, a statistical rupture that transcends normal market variation.
Two independent sharp sources anchor the consensus line, so the reference fair value rests on distributed professional opinion rather than inference from a single book.
Two historically profitable patterns from the Playbook align with this signal — the strongest track record stands at +29.5% on settled bets.
Baseball Asian handicap trades at mid-range odds have posted +22.9% ROI across 217 settled bets in the archive — a historical baseline for how comparable dislocations have resolved.
Pricing gaps of this magnitude typically compress toward consensus within approximately 2 hours from detection; the window does not extend through first pitch.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 15, 2026 01:51 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).