MLB · Baseball · Aug 14, 2026 22:15 EDT · avg book margin 5.0%

San Francisco GiantsvsColorado Rockies

Giants–Rockies Asian handicap at BetNation trades 9.5% above sharp consensus, 25 hours to first pitch

What happened: Final score: 2–5. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-0.5% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 31 hours after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at BetNation3.05Fair price2.78+9.5% above fair

Omenizer detected 2 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 25.2 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

As of writing, 25 hours before San Francisco Giants meet Colorado Rockies (MLB), BetNation's Asian handicap decimal odds of 3.05 sit 9.5% above where independent sharp operators have priced the same outcome. The gap is live; the mispricing is available now.

The outlier sits 4.7 standard deviations beyond the consensus cluster—a structural breach, not everyday market churn.

The consensus fair line is anchored by 2 independent sharp sources, meaning the benchmark reflects multiple professional operators rather than a single book's view.

This signal maps onto 2 historically profitable patterns from the Playbook. The stronger of the two has posted +29.5% ROI on its settled bet cohort.

The archive on baseball Asian handicap at mid-range odds spans 218 settled bets. Comparable pricing dislocations have returned +23.7% ROI total, establishing a precedent for how such gaps have historically compressed.

Edges in this market segment do not survive to first pitch. Comparable signals have typically eroded toward consensus parity within roughly 2 hours from detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard Rock2.15+0.9%
espn-bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
sport8882.05-3.8%
betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 15, 2026 04:51 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).