MLB · Baseball · Aug 15, 2026 19:10 EDT · avg book margin 5.3%
Cleveland GuardiansvsSan Diego Padres
Dabble's Asian handicap offer sits 43.3% above sharp pricing, 8 hours to first pitch
What happened: Final score: 6–1. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +1.5% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 61 minutes after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 7 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 8.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—8 hours before Cleveland Guardians and San Diego Padres square off in MLB—Dabble's Asian handicap decimal odds of 2.30 have drifted to a 43.3% premium over where four independent sharp sources have anchored their consensus fair line. The gap is open and measurable as of writing.
This outlier sits 2.8 standard deviations beyond the clustering where competing operators have aligned, marking a structural dislocation rather than ordinary fluctuation.
The consensus fair line rests on four independent sharp sources, meaning the benchmark reflects distributed professional judgment, not a single operator's view.
Two historically profitable patterns from our archive contain this signal type. The strongest variant has posted +25.6% across its settled sample.
The record on baseball Asian handicap signals at mid-range odds spans 234 settled bets. Comparable dislocations have returned +27.7% cumulative ROI, documenting precedent for how such gaps compress.
Dislocations of this type do not persist to first pitch. Historical patterns suggest comparable edges have typically eroded toward consensus within roughly 73 minutes from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 16, 2026 01:42 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).