CFL · American Football · Aug 15, 2026 19:00 EDT · avg book margin 4.8%

Hamilton Tiger-CatsvsSaskatchewan Roughriders

STN Sports moneyline quote on Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Saskatchewan Roughriders runs 12.4% high against sharp consensus, 2 hours from start

What happened: Final score: 26–19. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +2.96 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-0.2% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 2 hours after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Saskatchewan Roughriders — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at STN Sports3.96Fair price3.52+12.4% above fair

Omenizer detected 16 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 2 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection—2 hours before Hamilton Tiger-Cats face Saskatchewan Roughriders in CFL play—STN Sports has quoted the moneyline at decimal odds of 3.96, a level that sits 12.4% above the consensus fair value established by independent sharp operators. The mispricing is available to bettors at the time of analysis.

This quote breaks 2.9 standard deviations away from where the cluster of competing operators has settled—a structural outlier rather than typical market scatter.

Three separate sharp sources converge on the consensus, so the fair-value anchor does not depend on any single operator's judgment or model.

Historical precedent exists for this signal type: across 45 settled bets in the CFL moneyline segment at comparable odds levels, similar edges have returned +12.2% cumulative ROI.

Dislocations of this magnitude typically do not persist: comparable moneyline mispricings have historically compressed toward consensus within roughly 3 days from detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions · CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions @ 3.10
92 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+7.0%
Entry edge
+17.6%
Edge near close
2.64
Fair price (no-vig)
3.10
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.16%
Recommended stake
8.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
1xBet3.10+17.6%
Casumo2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Proline2.65+0.5%
betparx2.65+0.5%
LeoVegas2.65+0.5%
TABtouch2.65+0.5%
Bally Bet2.65+0.5%
BetNation2.65+0.5%
BetRivers2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Saskatchewan Roughriders is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 16, 2026 01:51 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).