NFL · American Football · Aug 28, 2026 18:00 EDT · avg book margin 4.6%
Baltimore RavensvsWashington Commanders
Sportingbet is paying 2.9% over the sharp consensus in the moneyline market, 26 hours before kickoff
Omenizer detected 3 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
82
Omen Score
+2.0%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Washington Commanders
@ 2.43 — best price at play-alberta
26 hours before Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Commanders (NFL), bookmakers disagree about the moneyline market — and one side of that disagreement is currently priced 2.9% above the sharp consensus at sportingbet, at decimal odds of 2.45. This is a live edge, not a post-mortem: the window is open as this page is generated.
3 independent sharp sources price this market, so the fair line behind that edge isn't one book's opinion.
This signal fits 1 historically profitable pattern from our Playbook — the strongest has realized +10.2% on settled bets.
Similar bets have paid before: signals in this exact segment — american football moneyline, mid-range odds — have returned +24.1% ROI across 63 settled bets tracked on our board.
Edges like this don't wait for kickoff: in this market, they have typically held for about 2 days before the price corrects.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions
· CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions
@ 3.10
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
1xBet
3.10
+17.6%
Casumo
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Proline
2.65
+0.5%
betparx
2.65
+0.5%
LeoVegas
2.65
+0.5%
TABtouch
2.65
+0.5%
Bally Bet
2.65
+0.5%
BetNation
2.65
+0.5%
BetRivers
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Commanders
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).