BetMGM is paying 2.4% over the sharp consensus in the moneyline market, 20 hours before kickoff
What happened: Final score: 12–18. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.60 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-5.1% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 20 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 677 live signals across 283 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 20.4 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
20 hours before Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers (NFL), bookmakers disagree about the moneyline market — and one side of that disagreement is currently priced 2.4% above the sharp consensus at BetMGM, at decimal odds of 2.60. This is a live edge, not a post-mortem: the window is open as this page is generated.
One price sits 3.4 standard deviations away from where the rest of the market has settled — a genuine outlier, not ordinary noise.
Similar bets have paid before: signals in this exact segment — american football moneyline, mid-range odds — have returned +24.1% ROI across 63 settled bets tracked on our board.
Edges like this don't wait for kickoff: in this market, they have typically held for about 3 days before the price corrects.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions
· CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions
@ 3.10
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
1xBet
3.10
+17.6%
Casumo
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Proline
2.65
+0.5%
betparx
2.65
+0.5%
LeoVegas
2.65
+0.5%
TABtouch
2.65
+0.5%
Bally Bet
2.65
+0.5%
BetNation
2.65
+0.5%
BetRivers
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 28, 2026 03:03 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).