MLB · Baseball · Aug 16, 2026 13:40 EDT · avg book margin 4.6%
New York MetsvsWashington Nationals
Mets–Nationals moneyline at YouWager: 3.0% inflated versus sharp consensus, 14 hours from first pitch
What happened: Final score: 4–3. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +1.0% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 14 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 2 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 14.3 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The moneyline between New York Mets and Washington Nationals (MLB) shows a pricing fracture 14 hours ahead of game start. YouWager has quoted decimal odds of 2.61 on one outcome—a level sitting 3.0% above the consensus fair value derived from independent sharp operators. The dislocation is current and tradeable at detection; it represents a measurable market gap, not hindsight analysis.
This quote deviates 2.6 standard deviations from the cluster where other bookmakers have anchored their pricing—a statistical outlier well beyond routine market variation.
The consensus benchmark rests on 4 independent sharp sources, so the fair value is distributed professional judgment rather than any single operator's model.
This signal corresponds to 1 historically profitable pattern in our archive—the strongest iteration has delivered +10.8% return on its closed bet sample.
The record across 603 settled baseball moneyline bets at similar odds levels shows cumulative +14.9% ROI, providing precedent for how comparable dislocations have resolved.
Mispricings of this magnitude do not survive to first pitch. Historical data suggests comparable edges in this segment have typically closed within approximately 9 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for New York Mets vs Washington Nationals
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 16, 2026 20:11 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).