MLB · Baseball · Aug 16, 2026 13:35 EDT · avg book margin 4.5%
Pittsburgh PiratesvsBoston Red Sox
Pirates–Red Sox moneyline: 4cx prices the underdog 2.9% soft to sharp consensus, 14 hours before first pitch
What happened: Final score: 8–3. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.05 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-1.3% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 14 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 7 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 14.2 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—14 hours before Pittsburgh Pirates and Boston Red Sox begin play (MLB)—4cx has quoted moneyline decimal odds of 2.05, a level that sits 2.9% beneath the consensus fair value assembled by independent sharp operators. The mispricing is live and accessible as of writing, not a historical artifact.
The consensus draws from 4 independent sharp sources, so the benchmark is grounded in distributed professional judgment rather than any single operator's model.
This signal aligns with 1 historically profitable pattern tracked in our archive—the top variant has realized +10.8% ROI on its settled bet cohort.
The record spans 603 settled bets in baseball moneyline signals at mid-range odds. Comparable mispricings in this exact segment have compounded to +14.9% cumulative ROI, establishing precedent for resolution.
Dislocations of this size do not linger to first pitch. Historical patterns suggest comparable edges in this market segment have typically compressed toward consensus within roughly 9 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 16, 2026 22:51 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).