MLB · Baseball · Aug 17, 2026 19:10 EDT · avg book margin 5.2%
Boston Red SoxvsArizona Diamondbacks
Red Sox–Diamondbacks Asian handicap: Bovada quoting 4.8% soft to sharp consensus, 22 hours from first pitch
What happened: Final score: 11–1. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.50 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-10.5% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 19 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 21.6 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—22 hours before Boston Red Sox take on Arizona Diamondbacks in MLB—an Asian handicap gap has opened between Bovada and the consensus built by independent sharp operators. Bovada's decimal odds of 2.55 price one outcome 4.8% below the fair value those professionals have converged on. The mispricing is accessible as of writing; it represents a tradeable market dislocation, not post-game analysis.
That consensus fair line derives from distributed professional judgment rather than any single book's model. One quote sits 2.3 standard deviations removed from the cluster where competing bookmakers have anchored their pricing—a statistical separation well beyond routine market churn.
This signal aligns with 2 historically profitable patterns in our archive; the strongest iteration has realized +24.9% ROI across its closed bet sample.
The record across 263 settled bets in baseball Asian handicap signals at mid-range odds shows cumulative +34.7% ROI, establishing precedent for how similar mispricings have resolved.
Dislocations of this magnitude do not linger to first pitch. Historical data suggests comparable edges in this market segment have typically compressed toward consensus within approximately 68 minutes from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 18, 2026 02:12 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).