MLB · Baseball · Aug 17, 2026 20:40 EDT · avg book margin 5.3%
Colorado RockiesvsLos Angeles Dodgers
4cx overpricing the Asian handicap by 2.2% versus sharp consensus, at detection 3 hours before first pitch
What happened: Final score: 5–11. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-9.4% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 25 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 666 live signals across 275 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 2.8 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—3 hours before Colorado Rockies–Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB)—the Asian handicap market shows a price split. 4cx is quoting decimal odds of 2.61 on one side, a position that sits 2.2% above where independent sharp operators have anchored their consensus line. The opening is active as of writing; this is a market dislocation, not retrospective commentary.
The 4cx quote lands 2.4 standard deviations from the cluster where the rest of the market has converged—a statistical separation well beyond ordinary trading noise.
The consensus benchmark rests on pricing from 3 independent sharp sources, so the fair line reflects distributed professional judgment rather than any single book's model.
This signal type—baseball Asian handicap, mid-range odds—has tracked across 265 settled bets on record, delivering +34.8% cumulative ROI when comparable edges have triggered. Similar trades have closed profitably before.
Mispricings of this magnitude do not typically survive to first pitch. Historical patterns suggest comparable edges in this market segment compress toward consensus within roughly 2 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 18, 2026 03:31 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).