MLB · Baseball · Aug 17, 2026 19:40 EDT

Kansas City RoyalsvsAthletics

Royals–Athletics totals caught 4.3% mispriced at detection, repriced toward the signal by first pitch despite the single result going the other way

How it ended, price by price: Kansas City Royals vs Athletics — full match recap with closing odds

Offered2.30Fair price2.21+4.3% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection, the over/under market for Kansas City Royals vs Athletics (MLB) displayed a mispricing: one bookmaker's decimal 2.30 sat 4.3% above the sharp consensus. The board surfaced the edge before first pitch, giving bettors a window to capture that price.

The match ended 9–5. This particular signal lost — single games are inherently volatile, and we report outcomes across the full distribution.

The metric that compounds: by first pitch, the market had repriced in the flagged direction, delivering +0.8% closing-line value. This is what professionals measure across portfolios, because individual results fluctuate while systematic repricing toward better prices does not.

Baseball totals signals at this odds range have produced +4.8% ROI across 783 settled detections on the board.

Detection happens before first pitch via the algorithm that surfaces mispricings daily. The live board displays flagged edges while the execution window remains open, not after settlement.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard Rock2.15+0.9%
espn-bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
sport8882.05-3.8%
betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Kansas City Royals vs Athletics is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 18, 2026 10:21 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).