MLB · Baseball · Aug 17, 2026 19:40 EDT · avg book margin 4.9%
Kansas City RoyalsvsAthletics
Royals–Athletics moneyline: boomers pricing 2.6% softer than sharp consensus, 22 hours to first pitch
What happened: Final score: 9–5. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-12.9% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 23 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 22.5 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—22 hours before Kansas City Royals face Oakland Athletics in MLB—boomers has quoted moneyline decimal odds of 2.75, a level sitting 2.6% below the consensus fair value that independent sharp operators have converged on. The mispricing is accessible as of writing; it represents a tradeable market gap, not post-game analysis.
That quote sits 2.8 standard deviations removed from the cluster where competing bookmakers have anchored their pricing—a statistical separation well beyond routine market churn.
This signal aligns with 2 historically profitable patterns in our archive; the strongest iteration has realized +11.9% ROI across its closed bet sample.
The record across 607 settled bets in baseball moneyline signals at mid-range odds shows cumulative +14.8% ROI, establishing precedent for how similar mispricings have resolved.
Dislocations of this size do not linger to first pitch. Historical data suggests comparable edges in this market segment have typically compressed toward consensus within approximately 9 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Kansas City Royals vs Athletics
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 18, 2026 02:31 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).